Models running · projections graded every slate

The model shows its working.

Statistical projections for NRL, AFL, NBA, MLB, EPL and international football. Every number is locked to a committed file before kickoff, then scored against the official result — wins and losses alike. No backfilling, no cherry-picked record, no hot picks.

No account needed. Projections and player signals are free on every game, every sport.

Leagues graded
Projections graded
0
Projections backfilled
A$0
To start
What you get

Numbers and the reasoning, not a tip sheet.

Edge Analytics sells data and tools — model projections, market comparisons, and the evidence behind them. What you do with the numbers is your call.

Free

Projections on every game

A projected result, a win probability, and the gap between the model and the market for every fixture on the slate — across every sport we run.

Free

Player signals & analyst notes

On every game. Every prop selection is graded in public and they stay free — what a membership buys is the positional data underneath.

Membership

Positions & heat maps

The positional data underneath the projection, on every game and every sport. This is what a membership actually buys.

How it works

Real data in. A stated method. A probability out.

Every sport runs its own pipeline, but they all follow the same contract — and where a model is simple, we say so rather than dress it up.

Data in

Official box-score and stats feeds, injury and late-out lists, venue and weather, and sportsbook lines — pulled fresh for each slate.

The model

Monte Carlo game simulation for NBA and MLB, distributional player-stat models for AFL, per-sport engines elsewhere. The method for each is written out in full.

Calibrated probability

Raw simulator output is never published. Each probability passes through a calibration fitted on settled results, and signals that fail sanity checks are dropped.

Keeping it honest

The part most sites leave out.

Anyone can show you a winning week. The useful question is what the record looks like when nobody gets to choose which weeks count.

Locked before kickoff

Each projection is committed to a versioned file while the game is still ahead of us. The timestamp is part of the record.

Graded against the official result

Every settled projection is scored and published on the Accuracy page — the losing runs included, at the same size as the winning ones.

Never backfilled

No projection is added, edited or removed after the fact. A model that was wrong stays wrong in the record.

Uncertainty shown, not hidden

Rates come with confidence intervals, and a sport stays marked tracking — with no headline number — until enough has settled to mean anything.

What we will not claim

An automated validation gate decides what this site is allowed to say. It compares every model against the closing market, and a sport only earns a performance claim once its skill score clears the market with a confidence interval that stays above zero. Right now no sport has cleared that bar — so you'll find no ROI figure, no profit total and no claim of an edge anywhere on this site. When one clears it, we'll show you the working for that too.

Coverage

Graded where there's a record. Tracking where there isn't. Market-derived where the numbers come from the book, not from us.

A sport appears with a public accuracy record only once its projections have started settling. Until then it's marked as tracking, and we say so plainly. One sport — AFL — publishes probabilities derived from bookmaker odds rather than an independent model. It's graded the same way, but it isn't ours, and we label it as such.

Pricing

Start free. Upgrade only if the depth is worth it.

One paid tier, every sport. We stopped selling per-sport plans because they granted the same access as the bundle — charging differently for identical access was a misrepresentation, not a pricing decision.

Free
Every sport, every game
A$0
no account needed
  • Projections — every game
  • ★ Featured Match in full depth, every slate
  • Public accuracy record — every projection graded
  • Player signals & analyst notes on every game
Open the models

All prices in Australian dollars. Stripe converts to your local currency at checkout.

Questions

The ones worth asking first.

Is this a tipping service?

No. We sell data and tools — model projections, market comparisons and the evidence behind them. Our accuracy record is public. What you do with the numbers is up to you.

Does the model actually win?

Check the Accuracy page — every settled projection is graded there, including the losing runs. We'd rather show you real numbers than promise you anything.

What do I actually pay for?

Positional data and heat maps on every game, across every sport. Projections, player signals and analyst notes stay free — see Pricing for the full split.

How do I cancel?

Every plan starts with a 7-day free trial, billed securely through Stripe. Cancel anytime — access runs to the end of your billing period.

Open the models and check the record yourself.

Free, every sport, every game.